On Investing in India

[Written in response to an argument that India is the place to invest in the next 25 years, due to its advantages in demographics, culture of education and experience with knowledge work.]

Assuming China will not stand still during this run, for India to cross China in GDP terms in 25 years will require a CAGR of around 8%. It's possible, but many stars need to align. The few examples of economies growing at these rates over 2+ decades time periods (China, S. Korea, Japan, Singapore), each had unique characteristics, but one major common theme was export orientation. If this current trend of de-globalization continues, this will be strong headwind for India. However, it might also be a blessing in disguise, forcing India to grow by internal consumption, unlike what Japan and China did in particular, and suffered for. 

Next, how will this GDP expansion reflect on the stock market. This is much harder to predict. India has a leg up on all these economies in that it already has a well established stock market, open to foreign investments, making it efficient and liquid. 

So far, the rupee has depreciated against the dollar and other major currencies steadily at 2-3% rate per year for decades. I have no idea if this trend will change if India gets on that GDP hockey stick. But if the currency exchange tax does continue, it'll be significant drag.

So, if the overall market grows at say 8-10% over 25 years (yes, I am conflating GDP growth and stock growth - sorry, I don't know any better), with a lots of uncertainty and choppiness in between, with a 2-3% currency tax, is this a viable investment for many of us that are the Indian diaspora in the USA? That's an individual decision, for sure. 

I came to the conclusion for myself that it doesn't make sense to invest my dollars in India. However, I am considering investing any rupees I may have in the India market, instead of repatriating it immediately to the US. (Dealing with taxes in two countries does give me a pause though).

Guns in the USA

 After yet another horrific school shooting in the USA, this time in Uvalde, TX, as usual I got enraged, saddened, motivated to "do something", etc. "What can I do?" was the question I was asking. But after the initial emotion cooled down, it dawned on me that I didn't know the answer to a more basic question of "What do I want?" or perhaps, "What can I hope for?". So, I have spent some time trying to get myself educated on the basics of Guns in the USA. Here is a summary. 

There is lots of data out there that clearly shows that the US has the highest rate of gun ownership per capita and the highest rate of gun deaths per capita, and that the two are well correlated. However, the incidence of mental illness and gun violence are NOT well correlated (after all, other rich countries have mental illness too, but not so much gun violence). It'll be silly to deny the connection between the prevalence of guns in the society and gun deaths.

Gun ownership and even gun pride goes all the way back to the founding of the US, and it's firmly rooted in the culture. Only a couple of other countries have the right to bear arms in their constitution. (A couple of others had it, but managed to remove it). I believe that this being codified in the constitution as the 2nd Amendment is a major reason for the cultural stickiness, and this is not going to change any time soon. Sadly, this means that a significant amount of gun violence will always be part of this society. (I will not get into what the original intent of the Constitution really was, and whether it's being taken completely out of context now, etc. That's obviously a very contentious, and perhaps a irreconcilable subject.)

The NRA and the gun lobby in general are no doubt significant impediments in getting to a common sense solution for the problem. However, I believe that they get their strength from the strong gun culture that prevails in this country, and the 2nd amendment, and it's not the other way around. 

While mass shootings get our attention, majority of gun deaths are single victims, and usually suicides. In fact, some people argue that the main victims of mental health issues are those people themselves, and it's very rare for someone struggling with depression, etc. to harm others. So, a lot of the right wing explaining away of gun violence as being because of "bad guys", "psychos" etc. is disingenuous and causes more harm (in the form of stigma and stereotyping) than providing a solution. 

So, let's talk real solutions now.

Right off the bat, let me state that, based on my learning so far, there is no silver bullet - pardon the expression! 

So what are the potential solutions?

1. Background checks

Specifically "universal background checks" - i.e. no matter the method of sale, there has to be a federal background check before an individual can acquire a gun: this is a popular solution. To be clear, this will not be a perfect solution. Someone who is yet to have a criminal record, but intends to do harm, will not be stopped by this. That doesn't mean it's useless though - it'll still provide some friction and filtering, and should be seen as a basic layer of protection. The HR8 bill that the Republican US Senators are refusing to pass is trying to do just this. 

2. Gun licensing 

This is a stronger version of background checks. Similar to needing a license to drive a car, someone who wants to own a gun, should get some training, pass a test and demonstrate some basic knowledge of gun safety. Two arguments from people that resist this idea are: 1. this only prevents accidents, but none of the murders or mass shootings are accidents and 2. this hassles responsible gun owners. Proponents argue that this would prevent impulsive acts of violence and preventing accidents is also a very welcome thing in a society where children accidentally shoot themselves or family members on a regular basis. Also, responsible drivers don't get to complain about needing to get a license (or carry insurance for that matter), so why are gun owners complaining?

3. Red Flag Laws

Such laws allow citizens to report anyone they worry might cause harm to themselves or others. There is usually a due process requirement (a court of law is involved), and where this is well implemented, this puts a temporary restriction on the red flagged individual from being able to buy a gun, and also takes away the guns they may already own. In almost all mass shooting incidents, the shooter has had a history of alarming behavior and tells, that many people, including family members, friends on social media, co-workers, etc. have noticed, and even reported to law enforcement, only to be ignored. So, there is reason to hope that such laws will stop many such incidents. But, concerns about this being abused or government overreach can't be dismissed. 19 states already have such laws, including a the red state of Florida. 

4. Assault Weapon Ban

Astonishingly, this is one of the more controversial forms of gun control. Lots of people are up in arms - pardon the expression again - about such bans. There was in fact a Federal Assault Weapon Ban in place in the US between 1994 and 2004. And during this period, data shows that mass shootings dropped significantly. Countries like the UK and Australia also enacted AWBs in the 90s, and have seen a near elimination of mass shootings. So, why is this so hard to bring back in the USA? Frankly, I don't know. But some hints are the following… the 1994 federal ban, and the current California AWB, are both written in a such way that they call out a number of specific models of semi-automatic rifles (fully automatic rifles are already banned), and their copy cats. In addition, in an attempt to cover newer models that don't seem like copies, but are effectively the same type of weapon, they call out certain features of these guns, and say they are not allowed. But this has become a cat-and-mouse game, with manufacturers making small tweaks that make the guns comply with the law in letter, but nevertheless defeat the spirit of it. (If you go on youtube and watch some of the videos on this, it's fascinating. And the comment threads are even more illuminating - almost 100% of comments are from gun proponents, and they all have the same arguments, which I suspect are NRA's talking points). 

5. Age Limits, Wait periods

Many states have 18 as the legal age limit to buy an assault weapon, which is bonkers. There should be a federal law that puts this age limit at 21 or something like that. Also, a short wait period (say 3 days), would probably prevent many impulsive violent acts. 

6. No Gun List

This idea is similar to a no-fly list. If the government can surveil people and prevent some from flying on airplanes, why can't they prevent some risky people from being able to possess a gun? This is a provocative idea that I haven't had a chance to think deeply about. I am sure there is a slippery-slope argument to be made about this (think Patriot Act and Edward Snowden). 

In conclusion, at this time, I think we need a set of regulations, to provide multiple layers of protection. This will include some basic universal background checks, increased age limit to be able to buy a gun (at least for assault rifles), wait periods and red flag laws. All these have precedence in the USA, and with some political courage and decency, should be doable. More sophisticated things like a no-gun list and a comprehensive assault weapon ban are going to be more difficult politically, but they have to be pursued in the longer term. 

So, this is roughly what I can hope for. Next, on to what I as an individual can do about it. 

You are carbon slime, deal with it.

Go climb a mountain on a clear day, and stand on the summit and look around. 

If you can see a few miles in every direction, that's perfect. 

How's the view?

Do you see rolling hills, trees, may be some water, perhaps roads, vehicles, homes and other human artefacts.

Look up.

What a pretty blue blanket the sky is!

You feel free, and safe, and empowered. 

Free, because you could go anywhere on this world and do what you want.

Safe, because that pretty blue blanket is made for you - it's just perfect. 

Empowered, because you climbed 1000s of feet. You can do what you want. 

And then there is a sudden change in perspective.

What looks like a flat world is in fact round: it looks flat to you because it's imperceivably huge. 

Those impressive 1000 feet of elevation you climbed: it's not even a wrinkle on the skin of this planet.

And that pretty blue blanket - well, it's not real. It's not material. It's just some air and scattered light. 

You are being fooled by your senses.

You are an insignificant piece of carbon based slime, crawling on the minute skin folds of a giant planet.

And you are completely exposed above your head for trillions and trillions of miles of hostile outer space.

This thought sends a chill down your spine. 

You crave the innocence of a moment ago, that feeling of safety, above all else. 

You want the world to be nice to you, to bend to your will, to cater to your needs. 

You know there are forces beyond you - the waves, the storms, the quakes, the fires, the comets and gamma ray bursts. 

You concede there are powers out there that may be vastly superior. 

You crave that they be benevolent. 

You so hope they look out for you. 

You appeal to them, you want to appease them. 

And now, you are no different than your ancestor from the African rift valley a quarter million years ago. 

You are a hairless ape. Mostly clueless. 

You have fancy titles, wear fancy badges, use fancy words. 

Ape, nevertheless. 

Part of a thin layer of slime coating a speck of rock hurtling around a small yellow star in one of the 200 billion galaxies. 

Thermostat Upgrade

When I first heard of the company called Nest, and how their few hundred dollar thermostat was sought after, I had rolled my eyes. It's a thermostat! Why do you need to upgrade it, much less to one that costs an arm and a leg? Made no sense to me then. Fast forward a few years, and having kids who expect to be able to talk to devices and get instant results, I had to reconsider. More over, PG&E has a generous rebate program going for connected, "smart" thermostats. So why not?

The thermostat that came with this 36 year old house is a thing of antique beauty. Just look at this clever electro-mechanical contraption. You can figure it out if you just stare at it long enough! It's so quant, so cute! I never wanted to let go of it. 

But, apart from not satisfying the need to command devices with one's voice, this antique didn't give me a "fan only" option, which I can really use in this AC-less two story house in the summer months (just to circulate the cooler air from downstairs to upstairs, and even the temperature out). 

So it has to come off the wall and likely go into the showcase!

But, before I could take the plunge with a WiFi connected, "smart" thermostat with ears, I needed to ensure the furnace is not equally antique. Which it turned out not to be, thankfully. I had got a tip from the furnace repair guy who had come in a couple of weeks ago that there is a provision for the "common" wire, and the "fan" wire, but they aren't hooked up. He could do a professional job of hooking them up and give me "peace of mind" for about a $100. He could even sell me a Nest thermostat for $300 something and install it right away. No thankyou. I need to do my research.

I ordered the latest Nest thermostat which is a "mere" $129, along with the matching trim plate for another $15, assuming I can just 'figure it out'.

It took some figuring though. First, to ensure that wires were indeed "low" voltage (but not "millivolt") you just need to look at what's behind the existing thermostat. What you want is single-strand wires, with no heavy-duty wire nuts and nothing that mentions 120V or something like that. Good to go on that front. But staring at this some (and at the back of the old RobertShaw), it was apparent that only two wires were in use. So the technician's tip made sense. 

But to be sure, and hopefully to be able to hook up the common and fan wires, I needed to open up the furnace and get into the control board

Bingo! Only two wires connected - the R and the W. (R is power, and W controls the heat). But two other wires were readily available in the bundle, and I simply need to insert them into the C and G slots (common and fan respectively). 

At the other end, removing the old baseplate was a bit of a pain, and what lay behind was an eyesore. A very crudely gouged, unnecessarily big, hole in the dry wall. So I patched it up with some wood putty (that's all I had on hand) and covered with a small sheet of paper so that the new baseplate doesn't stick to it permanently. 

Also, with a multimeter, I measured the voltages, and as expected, R to C was a little over 24V(AC), and the others were 0. Good. 

Now I had to worry about aesthetics a bit. Because the hole is considerably off center of the previous foot print, whereas the Nest wants to be centered perfectly, even with the large trim plate, I had an ugly exposure. 

Luckily, I found the paint in the shed, that the previous home-owner had left behind years ago, and the paint hadn't dried up. It needed several coats though, and the end result wasn't bad!

And oh, it all works too. Talking to the Google Home speaker and telling it to adjust the thermostat is kinda cool! The sci-fi world we already live in!!

A Hobby that makes one deal with one's Mortality

I have often wondered what enables, even inspires, some people to think and dream beyond their own lifetimes, and work on grand projects with the sole hope that the projects would attain fruition after they themselves are long gone. In many cases, like the Egyptian Pharaohs, it was a firm belief in life after death. In may other cases, it's a hope for a sort of historical or cultural immortality; a legacy. Many people seem to be motivated by the urge to leave the world a better place for their progeny (those clever genes!).

But in all these cases, this thought of legacy or after-life comes when one is well into ripe old age (or in the sick bed). Perhaps, parents of young children occasionally wonder if they would be around to see their children grow up. I for one, sure hope to be around to see these rascals suffer at the hands of their young children! Other than that, my mortality has never come to fore in my mind, even as I venture into that confusing phase of one's life called "middle age".

That is, until I started dabbling in Bonsai. Tress grow excruciatingly slowly, and I knew that. When you plant a fruit tree in your yard, you need to wait a few years for it to get to, hmm, fruition. Sure. But Bonsai is different. The very essence of this craft is to grow miniature, mature trees in a pot, and make them mimic an ancient wild tree. While there are some techniques to fake the ancient look, the only authentic way is to simply give the tree the time it needs to grow old. And that time is measured in decades, and sometimes in centuries!

Utah Juniper Bonsai photographed in
the East Bay Bonsai Society Exhibit,
Oakland CA, March 2019

The Utah Juniper Bonsai pictured here is estimated to be a 250 year old tree, and the Bonsai training was started 17 years ago. It's not uncommon for bonsai to be many centuries old.













So, when you start a bonsai, say from a seedling or a cutting, this predicament hits you: you'll be dead of old age well before this tree is anywhere close to being "done". You may see your children have their own children, you may see your start-up company grow into a trillion dollar behemoth, you may even see your pet public works project get completed, but you will not see your seedling become an authentic, great bonsai tree. Deal with it.

A come back?

I am not referring to Tiger Woods' come back after 11 years to win a Masters or the LA Clippers' come back win in the 2nd game of NBA play offs Round #1 against the Golden State Warriors, or whether the Notre Dame in Paris will ever come back after today's devastating fire. I am talking of my own come back... to blogging. Should I? Could I? Would I?

The Cycle

To see my father slowly become irrelevant, less and less of a man, less and less of a person, to be treated like an annoying and almost unwanted baby; to see him shrink and shrivel physically, become fragile and broken in so many places in his body, has been hard. We all have almost forgotten what he used to be. For some of us in the family, especially my children, this ghost is all they know of him, which is sadder in a way. This is all deeply personal, of course. I am unconsciously aware that this could very well be my fate too. Consciously, I worry about  what my kids are learning about the roles and capacities of elders, or the way to interact with one’s aged parents.

As I wait outside his ICU, day after day, I go through the whole gamut of emotions – sadness, anger, anxiety, guilt, tenderness, impatience, resignation, and boredom. I see other families around me, just waiting, looking passive, going through the motions, and remarkably not exhibiting much emotion. I got to know one family who had to make that Big Decision – to let their loved one fade away in comfort, and not be subjected to more and more interventions and invasions. To Let Go. Amazingly, they had smiles on their faces as they checked out and took their father home.

As I witness the miraculous rescue efforts these doctors and nurses are staging to save my father and the other patients in the ICU, most of them with severe head injuries, I simultaneously marvel, on the one hand, at the human ingenuity that teased out all this knowledge and invented all these technologies , and on the other, realize how we are so powerless in the face of nature’s relentlessness in enforcing its rules. Two different doctors told me in just the past few days, that medicine is not a science, and it’s more of a trial-and-error-and-hope-for-the-best craft. This humility is actually refreshing, though not reassuring. There is work to be done, progress to be made. Or, if you are in a cynical mood, it’s all pointless. Either way, it’s good to remember: nature is neither kind, nor cruel; it just IS.

I am afraid I am no wiser in the end. Irrespective of the outcome, life will go on, and most of these little revelations will recede from my consciousness. Until the next crisis. And so on. Until, one goes down to the vile dust from whence one sprung.